Hydrology in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan, the largest landlocked country in the world, faces complex hydrological challenges that significantly impact its economy, ecosystem, and population. Water resources, whilst present, are unevenly distributed across the territory and are under increasing pressure from agriculture, industry, and climate change.

Kazakhstan, the largest landlocked country in the world, faces complex hydrological challenges that significantly impact its economy, ecosystem, and population. Water resources, whilst present, are unevenly distributed across the territory and are under increasing pressure from agriculture, industry, and climate change. This blog post examines the major hydrological issues in Kazakhstan and explores potential solutions for a sustainable future.

The country is traversed by several major rivers, including the Syr Darya, the Ili, and the Irtysh. However, water resources are not evenly distributed among regions. The southern and western parts of the country often suffer from water shortages, whilst the northern and eastern regions enjoy greater water availability. This inequality is exacerbated by the transboundary nature of many rivers, which originate in neighboring countries such as China, Kyrgyzstan, or Russia, creating tensions over shared resource management.

Agriculture, a cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s economy, accounts for approximately 65% of total water use and places significant pressure on available resources. Irrigation systems, often outdated and inefficient, result in overconsumption of water and significant losses through infiltration and evaporation. For instance, cotton cultivation in the southern region is known for its high water demand. Additionally, excessive use of fertilisers and pesticides contaminates groundwater, making water less available and less potable for local populations.
The most emblematic example of Kazakhstan’s hydrological challenges is the Aral Sea. Once the world’s fourth-largest lake, it has lost 90% of its surface area in just a few decades due to intensive irrigation for Soviet-era agriculture. This ecological disaster has led to toxic sandstorms, economic losses, and public health issues. Whilst restoration efforts have achieved some recovery in the northern part (the “Small Aral”), the sea remains a tragic example of poor water resource management.

Paradoxically, although the country is predominantly arid, some regions face seasonal flooding. These floods, often exacerbated by glacier melt and heavy rainfall, cause significant damage to infrastructure, agricultural lands, and homes. In March 2022, a major flood in the Turkestan region, triggered by rapid snowmelt combined with torrential rains, affected over 20,000 hectares of farmland and displaced thousands of people. Such recurring events also lead to soil erosion and contaminate drinking water sources, worsening conditions for local communities.

Climate change amplifies these issues. Glacier melt in the Altai and Tian Shan mountains, which feed major rivers, is gradually reducing available water flows. At the same time, drought episodes are becoming more frequent and prolonged, affecting agriculture and drinking water supplies. According to the United Nations Environment Programme, Kazakhstan has already lost 30% of its glacier volume since the 1950s, and this trend is expected to continue.

In response to these challenges, Kazakhstan has undertaken several initiatives to improve its water resource management. Amongst these are modernizing irrigation infrastructure to reduce losses, with the introduction of technologies such as drip irrigation. Transboundary cooperation is also a key, albeit complex, element, involving water resource étiquette agreements with neighboring countries like China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Russia. These discussions often take place within a tense geopolitical framework but are essential for preventing water-related conflicts.

Another promising solution lies in the digitization of watersheds. By adopting digital technologies such as real-time monitoring systems and water resource modeling at large scale, the country could optimise resource management and improve equitable distribution. For example, a pilot project in the Ili basin demonstrating the right combination betweeen using smart sensors and river basin digitization could reduce water consumption by 20% whilst increasing agricultural productivity. Indeed, the Ili River basin, shared between Kazakhstan and China, faces significant water management challenges due to reduced flow from the Ili River, a major contributor to Lake Balkhash. This reduction is primarily attributed to increased water usage upstream in China, leading to concerns over water availability and quality in the region. In response to such challenges, the concept of digital twinning has been proposed as a promising solution for sustainable and equitable water management. Digital twins are virtual representations of physical systems that can simulate, predict, and optimize water resource management. A recent study published by Nature discusses the framework for building digital-twin basins to address obstacles in data, modeling, and policy incentives, aiming for comprehensive digitalization at the basin scale. At BWI, we prefer the concept of a digitized river basin over digital twins to emphasize that creating an exact replica of nature is neither possible nor desirable. However, we share the same vision regarding the value of digital twins and digitized watersheds, as outlined in the article published by Nature.

Efforts to mitigate flood risks are also crucial. Building and modernizing dams and levees, implementing early warning systems, and integrating flood risks into urban planning could reduce the impact of these natural disasters. Finally, promoting research and innovation in hydrology is essential to better understand and anticipate the effects of climate change on water resources.

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In sum, Kazakhstan’s hydrological issues intersect with economic, ecological, and social dimensions. Whilst the challenges are immense, solutions exist and require political will, effective management, and international cooperation. By implementing sustainable strategies and leveraging new technologies, Kazakhstan can not only overcome its water-related problems but also become a model for water management in the region.